Measuring Likely Voters. A Model for Predicting Electoral Participation in Romanian Presidential Elections

Measuring Likely Voters. A Model for Predicting Electoral Participation in Romanian Presidential Elections

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Predicting voter turnout by estimating the proportion of likely votersas accurately as possible is a challenging task and it is debated both in literatureand among experts actively involved in the field of sociological research The Effect of Nonlocal Vehicle Restriction Policy on Air Quality in Shanghai andpolling organizations.While there are several vari-ables that influence turnout, and also several meth-ods and models that have been put into practice overtime, in reality there is no magic formula for correct-ly measuring, before an election, the percentage ofindividuals that are most likely to vote.Each nation-al context comes with particular variables, as wellas historical factors and demographic dynamics thatneed to be taken into account.We propose a modelbuilt on pre-election survey data and on past officialelection statistics, which has been tested and provenviable in the context of The thermospheric auroral red line polarization: confirmation of detection and first quantitative analysis the 2019 Romanian presiden-tial election.